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Thursday, May 09, 2013

Reinhart and Rogoff correct austerity research error

Two Harvard economists whose widely-cited research on austerity was called into question last month have published a formal correction.


Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff acknowledged errors in the figures in their 2010 paper on government debt and economic growth.

However, they defended their broad conclusion that high levels of debt are damaging. The research has been used in support of austerity policies.

Flaws in the methodology in the paper first came to light when a masters student in the US found himself unable to replicate the findings of the study, called Growth in a Time of Debt.

A review by the student and his supervisors at the University of Massachusetts later found missing data, and questioned the way the academics calculated averages.

That called into question the conclusion that government debts equivalent to more than 90% of GDP negatively affect growth.

The corrected figures still show that high debt levels hurt growth, but the fall is gentler than the sharp drop at 90% originally found.

bbc.co.uk

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