Pivotal is proving Wall Street’s word for the week.
That’s how Barclays Plc and Credit Agricole SA describe the next five days: Greece faces a payment deadline to the International Monetary Fund; the U.S. releases a glut of data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move; central banks in Brazil and India may further widen a gap in emerging-market monetary policies.
“The week ahead could prove more pivotal than those currently trading FX markets expect,” Adam Myers, European head of foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Agricole’s corporate and investment-banking unit, said in a note on Sunday. He’s readying for the “necessary catalyst” to send the U.S. dollar higher against the euro.
Even if a Greek pact materializes to support Europe’s currency “we’d ride it out and sell into it,” he said. With a 300 million-euro ($327 million) payment to the IMF looming on Friday, Greece’s anti-austerity government remains deadlocked with its creditors over aid terms.
“It’s truly crunch time now,” Erik Nielsen, chief global economist of UniCredit SpA, said in a report on Sunday. “But getting money to the Greeks by the end of June is already questionable”
U.S. Payrolls
“A pivotal week” is also the title of the Barclays’ economists weekly outlook in which they focus on U.S. data.
Bloomberg surveys point to payrolls having gained 225,000 last month and manufacturing picking up. By contrast they suggest inflation, personal spending and productivity remained weak. “We expect the data to show U.S. economic activity rebounded in the second quarter,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.
“If not, market participants will push the expected start of Fed tightening further into the future.” The European Central Bank, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia are among central banks convening this week.
Although they may stand pat, the Reserve Bank of India may cut rates as soon as Monday, while Brazil’s central bank could raise its benchmark on Wednesday. As Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist in Hong Kong for Royal Bank of Canada, said in her note today: “It is a busy week.”
bloomberg.com
“The week ahead could prove more pivotal than those currently trading FX markets expect,” Adam Myers, European head of foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Agricole’s corporate and investment-banking unit, said in a note on Sunday. He’s readying for the “necessary catalyst” to send the U.S. dollar higher against the euro.
Even if a Greek pact materializes to support Europe’s currency “we’d ride it out and sell into it,” he said. With a 300 million-euro ($327 million) payment to the IMF looming on Friday, Greece’s anti-austerity government remains deadlocked with its creditors over aid terms.
“It’s truly crunch time now,” Erik Nielsen, chief global economist of UniCredit SpA, said in a report on Sunday. “But getting money to the Greeks by the end of June is already questionable”
U.S. Payrolls
“A pivotal week” is also the title of the Barclays’ economists weekly outlook in which they focus on U.S. data.
Bloomberg surveys point to payrolls having gained 225,000 last month and manufacturing picking up. By contrast they suggest inflation, personal spending and productivity remained weak. “We expect the data to show U.S. economic activity rebounded in the second quarter,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.
“If not, market participants will push the expected start of Fed tightening further into the future.” The European Central Bank, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia are among central banks convening this week.
Although they may stand pat, the Reserve Bank of India may cut rates as soon as Monday, while Brazil’s central bank could raise its benchmark on Wednesday. As Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist in Hong Kong for Royal Bank of Canada, said in her note today: “It is a busy week.”
bloomberg.com
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