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Saturday, March 01, 2014

Yen Rallies Versus Euro on Crimea Tensions; Yuan Drops

The yen headed for its longest rising streak versus the euro in 15 months, the ruble slid and Ukraine’s currency fell a fifth day amid tensions over the Crimea region.


European stocks rose and China’s yuan sank by a record while oil retreated.The yen rose 0.4 percent versus Europe’s currency by 8:31 a.m. in London, a fifth straight advance, while Russia’s currency slid 0.4 percent to the dollar.

The hryvnia slipped 0.2 percent after reports that Russian troops were deploying at airports in Crimea.

The yuan dropped as much as 0.9 percent in Shanghai, the biggest intraday weakening since at least April 2007. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.2 percent and oil dropped 0.4 percent.

Fitch Ratings Ltd. affirmed the Ukraine’s CCC credit rating as the new government seeks international aid to avert a default.

The People’s Bank of China may widen the trading band for the renminbi next quarter as the government works to stem speculative buying of the currency.

Data tomorrow and March 3 may show more slowing in China’s manufacturing sector. India and the U.S. report on fourth-quarter economic growth today.

“This political upset in the Ukraine is having a clear impact, not only on the Russian and Ukrainian markets, but it’s making investors cautious globally,” said Matthew Sherwood, who helps manage about $25 billion as the Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Perpetual Ltd.

“There is a real undercurrent of concern about the outlook for China. Markets have had a tremendous rally in February, so some of the weight of money is probably coming off the table.”

The yen traded at 101.65 versus the dollar, the highest since Feb. 20, and is 0.3 percent higher for the month after surging in January.

The country reported faster-than-estimated gains in industrial production and consumer prices today. The currency is heading for its longest streak of gains against the euro since November 2012.

Ruble Weakens

The ruble weakened to 42.2206 versus a dollar-euro basket and the MICEX Index (INDEXCF) in Moscow slipped 0.3 percent.

Ukraine’s hryvnia traded near record low versus the dollar set yesterday. Russia’s Interfax news agency reported that Russian troops had taken control of the Belbek airport near the Crimean city of Sevastopol.

Armed Russian troops wearing uniforms without insignia seized the airport at Simferopol, Crimea’s capital, Ukraine’s acting Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said in Facebook posting.

The airport was functioning normally, he said and Ukrainian troops were outside. While the European Union and the U.S. have pledged aid to the former Soviet republic’s new administration, Russia has questioned its legitimacy and halted a $15 billion bailout.

Bayer, Total

About seven stocks climbed for every four that fell on the Stoxx 600, which is within one point of a six-year closing high of 338.39 set on Feb. 25. Bayer AG, the German drug and chemicals company, climbed 1 percent after issued a forecast for 2014 revenue growth of about 5 percent that fell just short of analyst estimates.

Total SA (FP) climbed 0.8 percent to the highest since September 2008 in Paris after UBS AG analysts raised the French oil company to buy from neutral. Total was the third-biggest support to the Stoxx 600.

Erste Slides

Erste Group Bank AG plunged 7.6 percent, a fourth straight drop, after the Austrian lender reported a fourth-quarter net loss that was wider than projected and said risk costs will decline by about 5 percent.

The yuan was 0.38 percent weaker at 6.1518 per dollar as of 3:46 p.m. in Shanghai, down 1.8 percent from the 20-year high of 6.0406 reached on Jan. 14. It is still up 34 percent since a dollar peg ended in July 2005, the most among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

The drop came amid speculation the People’s Bank of China forced the currency lower as it prepares to widen the trading band from 1 percent to 2 percent.

Shake Out

“There are sound reasons why local policy makers would welcome the kind of depreciation and volatility we have just seen,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a report yesterday. “Introducing volatility in the currency is the obvious way of shaking investors out.”

The Goldman Sachs analysts said there are growing concerns over the growth impact of a credit buildup in the last few years. Policy makers also want to discourage leveraged bets on yuan appreciation, especially by local companies, it said.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed today, gaining 2.4 percent in February, the first advance since October. That compares with a 4.4 percent advance by the MSCI All Country World Index.

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index was little changed as Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd. and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., both controlled by billionaire Li Ka-shing, climbed after reporting earnings that matched or exceeded estimates.

The benchmark had retreated as much as 0.5 percent as the yuan tumbled. A measure of Chinese shares in Hong Kong retreated 0.7 percent after rising as much as 0.8 percent.

Shanghai’s benchmark index rose 0.4 percent, led by real-estate companies before the National People’s Congress meets next week to set economic policy and targets for the year ahead.

New Zealand’s dollar, the best performing major currency in Asia Pacific this month versus the greenback, rose 0.5 percent to 84.1 U.S. cents after ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd.’s business confidence index climbed to the highest level since March 1994.

The kiwi has gained 3.9 percent in February. Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 2.64 percent today after falling a third day in New York, dropping three basis points.

Rates touched the lowest level in almost three weeks during the U.S. session. The S&P 500 climbed after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled in testimony to the U.S. Senate that the central bank may alter its strategy on cuts to monetary stimulus should the world’s largest economy weaken.

bloomberg.com

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